So, your opening point I will just dismiss as hyperbole, naturally.
I'm not going to get into the biology of transitioning and how much strength is retained in the first three years of hormone therapy, though I will suggest googling. Maybe start here: https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/55/15/865
There's also the argument that women have testosterone too, naturally, and therefore they might have advantages in sports. My ex started to transition and initially the doctor didn't want to prescribe testosterone because her levels were naturally so high that she thought my ex was on T she bought illegally. How is having an advantage from testosterone any different from being Michael Phelps and having super long arms? If trans women have this advantage, I say let them have it. It's the only advantage they have and they are at such a high risk of suicide and homicide that no one is pretending to transition just to win some sports against some women. No man is pretending to be trans so he can be known amongst all his friends and family for playing in women's sports, and putting in all that time and work to compete in a gender that's deliberately momentary and manipulative. So, being a trans woman is an honest identity. If they are also an athlete, that's a lot of work and commitment that is earned. It's also honest. If a little advantage remains after years of therapy, it should be viewed as no different than being born super tall or with very long arms or as a woman who has a naturally high level of testosterone. There was a cis woman athlete who was not allowed to compete because she had naturally high levels of testosterone. That's ridiculous. Should we also start measuring everyone's feet, and making them have the same diets, and make them use the same workouts and be the same height before they can run against each other? There's a tribe of people in Kenya who run faster, longer, because they have naturally very slender ankles. Should they be kept out of sports because they have an advantage?
People get into these back and forth debates where it essentially goes like this:
"Trans women shouldn't compete in sports because they have an advantage." "No, they don't have an advantage because here's how much their bodies change on hormone therapy." "That's not true, because I read a study that said ___."
Take away the advantage then. Design away the advantage. There are multiple ways to do this and to not even come up with any other solution besides keeping trans women out of sports is a paucity of imagination fuelled by transphobia. Because if you really WANTED to have trans women in sports, if you had to find a solution to solve for all of the problems, you could think of some. I can think of some. I'm not going to get into them because I don't want to get into a big debate about micro things.
The point is that we can change how we do things. We can redesign systems. We can change definitions. Do it. Make it work for people. We're here to love our lives and experience joy alone and together. Let everyone have that. Unless NOT making it work is the whole point because one just doesn't like trans people.
